Are Democrat members of Congress such good investors that they can not only beat Republicans but also do something about 85% of professional investors cannot do, beat the S&P 500?... Read More
Betting markets are discounting a Republican/Trump victory. Financial markets impacted by the election's outcome are trading the same way.... Read More
This week's update looks at presidential betting, Electoral College betting, the polls, the election models and the potential of a red wave.... Read More
The betting markets are taking their lead from the simple average such as the one calculated by Real Clear Politics. In other words, betting markets follow an identifiable rationale and are not diverging into a random pattern that would be associated with manipulation.... Read More
We will update the political charts every week until election day to show the latest odds. The data suggests this race remains too close to call.... Read More
While the odds of a Harris presidency have been trending higher post-debate, the broad measures of betting markets, polling averages, and models are best described as too close to call. The election is now forty-three days away.... Read More
The data suggests this race is too close to call. Last week (pre-debate), Trump had a slight lead among bettors. This week, Harris has a slight lead. Post-debate polls will be rolling in next week.... Read More
The race is too close to call in this installment, with Trump trending slightly better. The debate is Tuesday, September 10, which could significantly change candidates' odds in the coming days.... Read More
Prediction markets show Biden's odds of being the Democrat nominee for the presidential election took a hit after the most recent debate. Trump's odds have not risen despite the uncertainty about the Democrat nominee.... Read More
An aggregation of polls shows Trump leads, in sharp contrast to 2020 and 2016.... Read More
The average age of the Senate is the oldest in history. The average age of a member of the House has ticked down from its record in recent years. Democrats are now older than Republicans.... Read More
The number of pages in the Federal Register ticked slightly higher in 2022. With government being divided in 2023, it may prove difficult for legislators to push through a lot of new laws.... Read More
Now that the Georgia Senate race is over, where do things stand politically?... Read More
On Election Day, the final set of polls, models, and bets are in. The Republicans look to sweep into the majority of the House and lean favorably to take the majority of the Senate. We soon find out how accurate these predictions are.... Read More
The midterm elections are Tuesday. Polls and betting markets continue to favor Republicans.... Read More
Polling has gotten more expensive. After years of bad calls, fewer are being conducted. For those that are left, even progressive political forecasters expect the polls to undercount Republicans.... Read More
The midterm elections are just 11 days away. The Republican surge continues.... Read More
With two weeks to go, Republican fortunes keep improving. They are now solidly favored to retake the House majority and at least a toss-up to take 51 seats or more in the Senate.... Read More
In late September the political betting markets started to move in the Republicans' favor. Markets can react faster to news and this appears to be the case again as increased Republican fortunes are now being reflected in the latest round of polls. The Republicans are solidly favored to take the majority of the House and their odds of taking the majority of the Senate are improving.... Read More
Opinions among bettors and election models are diverging, with bettors thinking Republicans are in a better place than models suggest. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight dismissed bettors who "aren't that smart."... Read More