Talking Data – The Case For the Bond Market
In the latest installment of Talking Data, Jim discusses the investment case for the bond market.... Read More
Sample Commentary
Newsclips
Inflation Watch – Biggest Beat in More Than a Year
Posted By Greg Blaha
CPI came in much higher than expectations. Traders now see a roughly 50/50 chance the Fed remains on hold through the September meeting.... Read More
Newsclips
Is Inflation Becoming Unanchored? – An Update
Posted By Jim Bianco
The Fed believes controlling inflation expectations is critical to returning to its 2% target. However, most measures of inflation expectations are becoming unanchored. If the Fed continues ignoring this, the bond market's reaction will worsen.... Read More
Newsclips
Fund Flows – Allocators vs. Traders
Posted By Greg Blaha
Differentiating 'allocator' ETF flows from 'trader' ETF flows... Read More
Client Conference Calls
The 4-5-6 Markets
A replay of our January 28, 2024 conference call. ... Read More
Newsclips
Why the Market Is Signaling an Inflation Problem?
Posted By Jim Bianco
The TIPS market and consumer surveys expect higher inflation levels in 2025. The bond market is responding with higher yields even though the Fed is cutting rates and sees more rate cuts into 2025.... Read More
Newsclips
Employment in Pictures – Strikes and Weather
Posted By Jim Bianco
Weather and strikes have muddied the payroll report's economic signaling. We will have to wait for revisions. The unemployment rate was not muddied, pointing to some strength in the labor market.... Read More
Newsclips
All Models Are Wrong, Some Are Useful
Posted By Jim Bianco
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators' failure to predict the post-Covid economy should be a reminder that this is no longer the pre-Covid economy. Assuming the economy "normalizes" to the pre-Covid economy risks policy mistakes.... Read More
Why Is RRP Falling?
Posted By Jim Bianco
Money parked in the Federal Reserve's reverse repo facility is shrinking again as money fund managers extend maturity to hold onto 5%+ yield as long as possible. This move is being driven by the belief that the Fed is finally going to start cutting rates, not some ominous sign that the financial system's plumbing is at risk.... Read More
What Does It Mean That the Stock Market Is Down to the Fabulous Four?
The stock market's year-to-date gains are more concentrated than just about any historical period. Wall Street is desperately looking for money to keep the rally going, but sources of liquidity are drying up.... Read More