Tag Archives: Central Banks

December 10, 2018

Will a Further Decline in Stocks Put Next Week’s Hike in Doubt?
Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

The Fed has stated the stock market does not influence policy. However, the "Powell Put" could be tested as early as today should stocks break lower to their biggest correction in nearly three years.... Read More

December 7, 2018

Central Banks

The Most Uncertain Hike of the Cycle
Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

It has been a while since a newswire story signaling a potential change in Fed policy affected markets. But, yesterday's report that the Fed is weighing a "wait-and-see" approach did just that.... Read More

November 29, 2018

Central Banks

Powell’s Journey from “A Long Way” from Neutral to “Just Below” Neutral
Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

Yesterday Jerome Powell changed his tune in saying the funds rate was "just below" neutral rather than "a long way" from neutral. We believe lower inflation expectations are the main reason for this change of heart.... Read More

November 28, 2018

Central Banks

Comparing Central Bank Balance Sheets to GDP
Posted By Greg Blaha | Charts of the Week

The BOJ's balance sheet recently grew bigger than Japan's GDP.... Read More

November 20, 2018

Central Banks

Is the Stock Market Making the Fed Reconsider Future Hikes?
Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

All signs continue to point toward a hike next month. However, uncertainty about rate hikes after that are increasing.... Read More

November 16, 2018

Central Banks

What Stops the Fed from Hiking?
Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

Neither economic data nor stock market prices are likely to change enough prior to the December 19 FOMC meeting to force the Fed to rethink its planned hike.... Read More

November 9, 2018

Central Banks

Understanding Fedspeak
Posted By Greg Blaha | Newsclips

FOMC statements in the Powell era remain short and to the point.... Read More

November 8, 2018

Central Banks

Will The Fed Cut (Yes, Cut) Rates Today?
Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

Talk is rampant that the Fed could cut Interest on Excess Reserves (IOER) by five basis points to better align the effective rate in the middle of its range of 2.00% to 2.25%. The Fed is not entirely sure why IOER has drifted to the upper end of the targeted range, but increased bill supply is one suspect.... Read More

November 7, 2018

Central Banks

Tracking the Fed’s Balance Sheet Reductions
Posted By Greg Blaha | Charts of the Week

An update of the Fed's balance sheet reduction... Read More

October 3, 2018

Central Banks

Timing Fed Hikes
Posted By Jim Bianco | Charts of the Week

The fed funds futures market is fairly certain of a hike in December. After that the picture becomes less clear.... Read More

September 27, 2018

Central Banks

The Fed Gets Easier to Understand, but Obfuscates on the Most Important Question
Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

FOMC statements are becoming shorter and easier to understand, but Powell's presser yesterday left much to be desired.... Read More

September 19, 2018

Central Banks

The Market’s Near-Perfect Track Record In Predicting The Outcome Of Fed Meetings
Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

The market's track record for predicting the outcome of Fed meetings is nearly perfect in the months leading up to the decision. The Fed does not want any surprises, so it offers complete transparency to achieve this outcome.... Read More

September 12, 2018

Central Banks

Volatility of Rate Hike Timing Ultra-Low
Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Charts of the Week

Ultra-low economic data volatility is being met with ultra-low rate hike timing volatility across major developed central banks.... Read More

September 10, 2018

Central Banks

Will the Fed Stick to Long-run Neutral Rate of 3.0%?
Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Featured, Newsclips

Further tightening in 2019 will begin to rein in financial leverage, but run the risk of impairing credit and lending growth.... Read More

September 7, 2018

Central Banks

Is Fed Policy Becoming Less Predictable or Changing Focus?
Posted By Jim Bianco | Newsclips

Tim Duy is making the case that Powell's decreased reliance on econometric models has made the Fed less predictable. We simply see the Fed pivoting to an increased focus on inflation.... Read More

September 5, 2018

Central Banks

Tracking The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reductions
Posted By Greg Blaha | Charts of the Week

An update of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening... Read More

August 22, 2018

Central Banks

The Fed May Be About to Make a Mistake
Client Conference Calls

Markets are skeptical that inflation will rise enough to justify the need for several more rate hikes.... Read More

August 17, 2018

Central Banks

Don’t Bet on A Fed Policy Change at Jackson Hole Next Week
Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

What looks like a technical issue in the Fed's balance sheet reductions is becoming a bigger deal. While we would not be surprised if the Fed has someone discuss the mechanics of quantitative tightening next week, we doubt the Fed will be too forthcoming about the growing divergence in policy and reality.... Read More

August 2, 2018

Central Banks

Understanding Fedspeak
Posted By Greg Blaha | Newsclips

FOMC statements continue to get shorter and easier to understand. According to the Flesch-Kincaid grade level test, readers don't even need a high school diploma to understand yesterday's statement.... Read More

August 1, 2018

Central Banks

GDP Beat Tees Up an October Hike from the Bank of Canada
Posted By Peter Forbes | Newsclips

The Bank of Canada is sitting out central bank week. But yesterday's strong GDP report and persistent inflation growth set the stage for another rate hike in October. ... Read More

Will a Further Decline in Stocks Put Next Week’s Hike in Doubt? Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

The Most Uncertain Hike of the Cycle Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

Powell’s Journey from “A Long Way” from Neutral to “Just Below” Neutral Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

Comparing Central Bank Balance Sheets to GDP Posted By Greg Blaha | Charts of the Week

Is the Stock Market Making the Fed Reconsider Future Hikes? Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

What Stops the Fed from Hiking? Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

Understanding Fedspeak Posted By Greg Blaha | Newsclips

Will The Fed Cut (Yes, Cut) Rates Today? Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

Tracking the Fed’s Balance Sheet Reductions Posted By Greg Blaha | Charts of the Week

Timing Fed Hikes Posted By Jim Bianco | Charts of the Week

The Fed Gets Easier to Understand, but Obfuscates on the Most Important Question Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

The Market’s Near-Perfect Track Record In Predicting The Outcome Of Fed Meetings Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

Volatility of Rate Hike Timing Ultra-Low Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Charts of the Week

Will the Fed Stick to Long-run Neutral Rate of 3.0%? Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Featured, Newsclips

Is Fed Policy Becoming Less Predictable or Changing Focus? Posted By Jim Bianco | Newsclips

Tracking The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reductions Posted By Greg Blaha | Charts of the Week

The Fed May Be About to Make a Mistake Client Conference Calls

Don’t Bet on A Fed Policy Change at Jackson Hole Next Week Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

Understanding Fedspeak Posted By Greg Blaha | Newsclips

GDP Beat Tees Up an October Hike from the Bank of Canada Posted By Peter Forbes | Newsclips

Will a Further Decline in Stocks Put Next Week’s Hike in Doubt?
Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

The Most Uncertain Hike of the Cycle
Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

Powell’s Journey from “A Long Way” from Neutral to “Just Below” Neutral
Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

Comparing Central Bank Balance Sheets to GDP
Posted By Greg Blaha | Charts of the Week

Is the Stock Market Making the Fed Reconsider Future Hikes?
Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

What Stops the Fed from Hiking?
Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

Understanding Fedspeak
Posted By Greg Blaha | Newsclips

Will The Fed Cut (Yes, Cut) Rates Today?
Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

Tracking the Fed’s Balance Sheet Reductions
Posted By Greg Blaha | Charts of the Week

Timing Fed Hikes
Posted By Jim Bianco | Charts of the Week

The Fed Gets Easier to Understand, but Obfuscates on the Most Important Question
Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

The Market’s Near-Perfect Track Record In Predicting The Outcome Of Fed Meetings
Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

Volatility of Rate Hike Timing Ultra-Low
Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Charts of the Week

Will the Fed Stick to Long-run Neutral Rate of 3.0%?
Posted By Ben Breitholtz | Featured, Newsclips

Is Fed Policy Becoming Less Predictable or Changing Focus?
Posted By Jim Bianco | Newsclips

Tracking The Fed’s Balance Sheet Reductions
Posted By Greg Blaha | Charts of the Week

The Fed May Be About to Make a Mistake
Client Conference Calls

Don’t Bet on A Fed Policy Change at Jackson Hole Next Week
Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips

Understanding Fedspeak
Posted By Greg Blaha | Newsclips

GDP Beat Tees Up an October Hike from the Bank of Canada
Posted By Peter Forbes | Newsclips