A look at the April 2018 payroll report.... Read More
Investors are contemplating whether or not earnings and economic growth are "as good as it gets." Global concerted growth has indeed ended with diverging data change indices. Transitions away from economic surprises and above-average data changes have typically produced the greatest volatility over the ensuing months.... Read More
Comparing the size of U.S. GDP to various markets... Read More
We are not getting excited about U.S. 10-year yields hitting 3.0%. Slowing economic growth will likely keep sovereign yields from racing higher, even if inflation begins to percolate. Concerted global economic growth has ended with data changes detaching and the percentage of economies producing above-average growth nearing a drop below 60%. Defensive sectors and municipal bonds top our list of attractive investments.... Read More
Since 1939, the creation of service-providing jobs has outpaced that of goods-producing jobs almost ten to one.... Read More
An end to concerted global growth and shift to tightening by major central banks will likely keep a lid on market-based inflation expectations like U.S. TIPS breakevens. Financial stress has shed its negative correlation to tightening expectations, meaning rate hikes are finally viewed as a contractionary hindrance. ... Read More
Group-think has likely led a dramatic rebound in soft, survey-based data, creating a large divergence from hard data. Whether or not global economic growth is cresting or rolling over, dampening expectations are in order. We expect higher volatility to continue across equities, while U.S. Treasuries remain in 'wait and see mode' for realized inflation growth. All in all, the VIX and MOVE will remain disconnected.... Read More
Tax Freedom Day is the day of the year when workers have effectively worked enough to pay their taxes for the year and can begin making money for themselves. In 2018 Tax Freedom Day is April 19.... Read More
An update of our world GDP estimate as explained by commodities... Read More
The rise of the technology sector has produced an anchor for core inflation. Convergence between other sectors like industrials, materials, and consumer discretionary is bound to occur, but not over the short run. All in all, the game has changed for inflation and so too should the Fed's use of a target.... Read More
With the payroll number missing expectations, many were quick to blame March's unusual snowfall in the Northeast. Unfortunately, the statistics do not back up this opinion.... Read More
Waning Eurozone economic data is now being exacerbated by worsening soft, survey-based data. The Eurozone's pace of improvement in soft data is falling below that of the U.S. for the first time since March 2017. ... Read More
Despite lingering winter weather in parts of the U.S., the payroll report is unlikely to be abnormally affected.... Read More
The consumer is healthy, but signs of a slack and deteriorating real estate interest will likely prevent core inflation from achieving the Fed's target of 2.0% in 2019.... Read More
The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now sees Q1 growth at 1.8%. The New York Fed's Nowcast sees 2.9% Q1 growth. What gives?... Read More
Eurozone economic data have made a swift turn to missing expectations, heightening the potential for the U.S. to follow suit. Any revivals in the spread between U.S. and German inflation expectations should be short-lived. The U.S. has built significantly more inflation premium into nominal yields, meaning greater risk in the event realized inflation is a bust.... Read More
Incoming economic data are missing expectations across a majority of developed economies, foreshadowing a shift to sub-par realized data changes. These transitions have not been kind to global equity markets. Notably, inflation changes are also falling back to one-year average growth rates.... Read More
While the perception is the economy is an unstoppable train, signs of slowing are starting to emerge and could spell trouble for world stock markets.... Read More
Student loans now total $1.49 trillion.... Read More