Tag Archives: Economy

Economy

Inflation Expectations Face Headwinds from Slowing Growth and Tightening Policy
Posted By Ben Breitholtz  |  Featured, Newsclips

An end to concerted global growth and shift to tightening by major central banks will likely keep a lid on market-based inflation expectations like U.S. TIPS breakevens. Financial stress has shed its negative correlation to tightening expectations, meaning rate hikes are finally viewed as a contractionary hindrance. ... Read More

Economy

Consumer Healthy, But Warts Remain
Posted By Ben Breitholtz  |  Featured, Newsclips

The consumer is healthy, but signs of a slack and deteriorating real estate interest will likely prevent core inflation from achieving the Fed's target of 2.0% in 2019.... Read More

Economy

U.S. Economic Data – Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop?
Posted By Ben Breitholtz  |  Featured, Newsclips

Eurozone economic data have made a swift turn to missing expectations, heightening the potential for the U.S. to follow suit. Any revivals in the spread between U.S. and German inflation expectations should be short-lived. The U.S. has built significantly more inflation premium into nominal yields, meaning greater risk in the event realized inflation is a bust.... Read More

Economy

Concerted Global Growth is Fading
Posted By Ben Breitholtz  |  Featured, Newsclips

Incoming economic data are missing expectations across a majority of developed economies, foreshadowing a shift to sub-par realized data changes. These transitions have not been kind to global equity markets. Notably, inflation changes are also falling back to one-year average growth rates.... Read More