This week US News & World Report released their 2019 college rankings. This is the oldest such ranking, starting in 1983, and likely the most influential.... Read More
The different results between the Dallas Fed surveys and earnings calls highlight how careful one must be in interpreting groups' opinions. Surveys, which are often considered great leading indicators by economists, come with their own set of issues which must be questioned in any analysis. CEOs are painting a darker picture for the Fed, while remaining rosy for investors.... Read More
Household debt and credit is broken down by auto loans, credit cards, HELOCs, student loans and mortgages... Read More
Student loans have been the fastest growing form of household debt over the past decade, but auto loans have grown faster over the past five years. HELOCs are now at levels last seen in Q3 2004.... Read More
The U.S. and Latin America stand out as the only economies producing well-above average data changes.... Read More
With only four days left before the BEA's official release of Q2 GDP, the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed have very different estimates.... Read More
Search trends show consumers beating the heat by hitting the road and the water this summer. The shift is already affecting performance in retail stocks and commercial real estate. ... Read More
With less than a month to go until the advanced release of Q2 2018 GDP, the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and New York are projecting vastly different growth rates for the U.S. economy.... Read More
Despite small business optimism, Google search traffic indicates declining activity in small business formation and borrowing.... Read More
Economic growth in the U.K. and most of Europe is slipping further, driven by collapsing soft (survey) data. ... Read More
Choppy equity markets are being produced by a battle between two major storylines: "synchronized global growth" and fear this is "as good as it gets." We have previously shown synchronized growth has already ended, therefore the onus is on a rebound in fading economic data changes. Equity markets can no longer be so reliant on the stories of late 2017 and early 2018.... Read More
A look at the April 2018 payroll report.... Read More
Investors are contemplating whether or not earnings and economic growth are "as good as it gets." Global concerted growth has indeed ended with diverging data change indices. Transitions away from economic surprises and above-average data changes have typically produced the greatest volatility over the ensuing months.... Read More
Comparing the size of U.S. GDP to various markets... Read More
We are not getting excited about U.S. 10-year yields hitting 3.0%. Slowing economic growth will likely keep sovereign yields from racing higher, even if inflation begins to percolate. Concerted global economic growth has ended with data changes detaching and the percentage of economies producing above-average growth nearing a drop below 60%. Defensive sectors and municipal bonds top our list of attractive investments.... Read More
Since 1939, the creation of service-providing jobs has outpaced that of goods-producing jobs almost ten to one.... Read More
An end to concerted global growth and shift to tightening by major central banks will likely keep a lid on market-based inflation expectations like U.S. TIPS breakevens. Financial stress has shed its negative correlation to tightening expectations, meaning rate hikes are finally viewed as a contractionary hindrance. ... Read More
Group-think has likely led a dramatic rebound in soft, survey-based data, creating a large divergence from hard data. Whether or not global economic growth is cresting or rolling over, dampening expectations are in order. We expect higher volatility to continue across equities, while U.S. Treasuries remain in 'wait and see mode' for realized inflation growth. All in all, the VIX and MOVE will remain disconnected.... Read More
Tax Freedom Day is the day of the year when workers have effectively worked enough to pay their taxes for the year and can begin making money for themselves. In 2018 Tax Freedom Day is April 19.... Read More
An update of our world GDP estimate as explained by commodities... Read More