The Fed can work to remove the inflation due to the excess demand from stimulus. The changes to consumption baskets are a trickier issue.... Read More
Base effects point to a peak in inflation this spring. But the real question is, "How fast does inflation recede?" If it does not fall quickly enough, the political pressure on the Fed could demand 5 or so rate hikes, plus QT, in the next year.... Read More
Those aged 60+ consistently have higher inflation expectations than those under 40.... Read More
Core inflation in the U.S. is among the highest in the developed world.... Read More
A record 15 of 18 Fed officials reported upside risks to inflation in December, but this comes amidst high uncertainty.... Read More
A breakdown of the biggest contributors to headline CPI's 5.4% rise in the year ending September... Read More
A growing portion of inflation's components are rising above the Fed's targeted rate of 2%+. Trimmed mean indices have gained in popularity as a result.... Read More
A breakdown of the biggest contributors to headline CPI's 5.3% rise in the year ending August... Read More
Energy costs were once again the biggest contributor to headline CPI. The degree to which rising shelter costs offset falling used car and truck prices will likely be a key determinant in future CPI releases.... Read More
Those aged 60+ consistently have higher inflation expectations than those under 40.... Read More
Energy was the biggest contributor to headline inflation in the year ending June, followed by used cars and trucks.... Read More
The Atlanta Fed breaks down CPI into 'sticky' and 'flexible' components.... Read More
We still believe the next big move in rates is higher. Inflation that is more than transitory has been our forecast for over a year now. We see no reason to change this.... Read More
Federal Reserve Officials utter the word "transitory" every time the subject of inflation comes up. Many measures suggest inflation expectations are rapidly rising. How long can the Fed wait before seeing what the market sees?... Read More
All signs point to inflation going significantly higher over the short term. Will this burst prove to be more than transitory? This is arguably the most important macro question of the year.... Read More
The signs of inflation rising beyond a base effect are unmistakable.... Read More
Debt, deficits, and borrowing are exploding higher. Taxes finance less government spending than any time in the past 75 years, yet none of this is impacting bond yields. That leaves inflation.... Read More
A look at the subcomponents of CPI and their contribution to the year-over-year headline number... Read More
Until fiscal stimulus is proven to have a consequence, such as higher bond yields from higher inflation expectations, we should expect widening deficits.... Read More
The effects of the lockdowns and subsequent re-openings are readily apparent in the flexible components of core CPI.... Read More