A detailed look at interest rates. 5-Year large specs at a new net short extreme position. ... Read More
Potential for slowing capex is an underappreciated concern. Slowing search activity, falling emerging market currencies, and waning soft data are likely headwinds to a strong streak of capex. We detail which U.S. industries are most susceptible to shifting spending.... Read More
Bond managers and traders are painfully aware of the near-record low volatility in the bond market. Measures of bond market leverage are also at near-record lows, likely driven by the same factors.... Read More
Financial markets' reaction to the sharp yuan weakness is surprisingly sleepy, even for mid-summer. Will a return to the highs for USDCNY wake them up?... Read More
Global central bank tightening is underway with emerging economies joining developed central banks. ... Read More
The assault on investment grade corporates has subsided with stable U.S. Treasury yields. But, the rise of near zombie companies across numerous industries will again exacerbate losses when yields finally ascend to new heights.... Read More
Falling industrial metals are likely to drag economic growth below average for Asia Pacific economies. Opportunities in Asian emerging market bonds might be opening up despite the shaky outlook for growth. ... Read More
Low fee equity ETFs have seen much higher returns than high fee equity ETFs in 2018.... Read More
While the majority of fixed income ETF assets are in low-cost funds, returns of this group have lagged the more expensive funds in 2018.... Read More
What if we created a 12th sector that included Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft and Google?... Read More
Capital outflows are still plaguing China as its citizens try to move money away from the grasp of its government.... Read More
An updated look at high yield ETFs... Read More
Corker is right, Fed watching has moved from the endangered species list to extinct with the ascension of Powell. The Fed's uncertainty over the path of the economy and rates is ultra-low, while outlooks have shifted away from the ultra-short-term to balanced. All in all, we might have more fun watching paint dry.... Read More
Small cap equities have delivered on both performance and diversification in the first half of 2018. The diversification benefits are especially attractive with the convergence in performance across domestic sectors. ... Read More
Eurozone economic data is due to rebound given a rebound in beats. Important search trends (Google) in Germany have slowed, but remain positive. The risk of a summer 2019 hike by the ECB is growing.... Read More
Despite the constant hyperventilation on cable news channels regarding tariffs, companies are pointing to the dollar as the main headwind to earnings.... Read More
The large gap in University of Michigan inflation expectations survey between youth and middle-aged respondents suggests the Atlanta Fed?s flexible CPI will moderate in the months ahead. However, the sticky CPI components remain in an uptrend given above-average economic data changes and positive search trends for both discretionary and non-discretionary items. Those looking to sell TIPS will likely find a golden opportunity later this summer.... Read More
Today's topics include FAANMG stocks, rate hikes, market anxiety, technical problems with the funds rate, circumventing clearing houses, ETF flows, low summer volume and Gundlach sees a recession.... Read More
