Today's topics include rising consumer confidence, yield curves and recessions, the stock market, the "fast star", the market vs the Fed, volatility, the U.S. dollar, secular stagnation, corporate debt and the stock market vs pundits. ... Read More
Trade-related growth concerns have tightened the ties between industrial metals and risk markets. U.S. high yield bonds and both developed and emerging market equities are likely to tag along if metals rebound. ... Read More
Industrial metals are expected to continue rebounding after sinking significantly below fair value. Converging economic data is supportive of emerging markets and the commodity trade going into the fall of 2018.... Read More
Financial media are awash with talks about potential crisis, but the risk of sizable equity drawdowns are low. The Eurozone is beginning to produce economic data beats, while the U.S. turns to misses. Past similar instances have kept a lid on the S&P 500 and U.S. 10-year note yields.... Read More
Vanguard may have achieved a narrow victory, but sustained success has been elusive in the ETF fee price war. ... Read More
A look at the top posts from the week of August 20, 2018. ... Read More
Large speculators are at a net short extreme position in the 10-Year Treasury. ... Read More
How do business cycles work? Economic actors, like Target's CEO Brian Cornell and his contemporaries, proclaim this is the best consumer environment ever and then act on their opinion by overbuilding. The Fed then fears the economy is overheating and hikes rates too much. Everything goes too far and the economy peaks.... Read More
Large dispersion of equity returns have greatly benefited short-correlation trades. But, the short windows for success and abnormally low correlations make this a tough time to dip your toe in the water.... Read More
Municipal bonds refusing to chase U.S. Treasuries flatter is a regulator phenomenon during maturing tightening cycles. We expect the gap in curve spreads to continue until the Fed reaches its so-called neutral rate.... Read More
The healthcare sector is outperforming across equities and investment grade credits. With just over two months to mid-term elections, investors are making a big bet on the sector in the face of rising policy uncertainty. ... Read More
A Moody's report spooked some investors and market conditions continue to favor high yield over bank loans. Financial conditions bear watching as the Fed approaches neutral. ... Read More
Today's topics include the longest bull market in history, previewing Jackson Hole, emerging markets' share of world GDP, the FOMC minutes, China feeling the effects of the trade war and the world's love affair with U.S. debt.... Read More
U.S. economic growth has diverged from all others during its streak of outperformance. However the extreme gap between economic data change indices of the U.S. and the world at large suggest convergence is likely. In this case, U.S. equities and... Read More
Only 31 of the 406 (8%) S&P 500 earnings conference calls saw tariffs as an issue for their company. 240 companies did not even bring up the topic. 135 calls mentioned tariffs, but dismissed them as having no meaningful... Read More
Company earnings call transcripts and presentations reveal rising expectations for inflation, wages, capital expenditures, and consumer spending. Trade policy uncertainty has not impaired outlooks. ... Read More
Even high-income households are holding on to older cars. Search trends have shifted in favor of vans, SUVs, hybrids, and electrics since April. ... Read More
U.S. economic growth has diverged from all others during its streak of outperformance. However the extreme gap between economic data change indices of the U.S. and world at large suggest convergence is likely. In this case, U.S. equities and the U.S. dollar underperform.... Read More