Tag Archives: Markets

May 16, 2018
Markets

Investors Unexpectedly Commit to Higher U.S. Headline Inflation
 |  Featured, Newsclips

U.S. Treasury volatility may be ultra-low, but investors have finally committed to headline inflation running above 2.0% for the first time since 2014. U.S. 10-year yields are the highest across developed economies due to improving inflation momentum. But, investors must become believers in 2.5+% headline inflation to support a Fed hoping to hike another three to four times.... Read More

May 15, 2018
May 14, 2018
Markets

Waning Consumer Search Trends Not Jiving with Sky-high Survey Results
 |  Newsclips

Consumer search trends are seeing an unfavorable shift in contrast to still sky-high sentiment found within traditional surveys. U.S. 10-year yields have historically struggled to rise under depressing consumer trends. Additionally, TIPS underperform, meaning TIPS breakevens should face headwinds. Remember, TIPS breakevens have been steering Federal Reserve policy in 2017 and 2018.... Read More

May 12, 2018
Markets

Regime Change
Public Appearances

The week of May 14 to May 18 Jim and Ben visited clients in Europe.  Below is the handout used. The Fed has shifted its focus from Financial stability to Inflation. The chart below shows 25-speech rolling word counts of... Read More

Markets

Mid-Term Update
Public Appearances

FiveThirtyEight – Nate Silver: For Once, Republicans (And Democrats) Mostly Avoid Self-Inflicted Damage A secondary headline, given that Blankenship finished in a quite distant third place, is that internal ?polls? supposedly showing Blankenship surging may have been bullshit all along and driven... Read More

May 11, 2018
May 9, 2018
Markets

What Does Work
Client Conference Calls

Summary An end to global synchronized growth poses risks for lopsided short positioning in long-end U.S. Treasuries. The Federal Reserve and markets are pricing in very little uncertainty, but news trends indicate uncertainty over central bank policies are indeed on... Read More

May 8, 2018
May 7, 2018
May 4, 2018
Markets

CoT Detail: Currencies
COT Update

We have been highlighting the ?over-speculated? nature of currencies over the past several months. This is another way of saying the dollar is too hated. The first chart below shows the euro. The net position of large specs (second panel)... Read More