Stock total returns since the Fed hiked on December 17, 2017... Read More
Commodity total returns since the Fed hiked on December 17, 2017... Read More
Rising real earnings suggest core inflation and wages will rise on a lag. The S&P 500 will likely continue to rise, but ultimately produce dampened returns and higher volatility based on similar past scenarios. U.S. TIPS standout as calm, stable performers.... Read More
Active management can often outperform in a bear market while still losing money. Convincing investors of the value in this is no easy task.... Read More
Weakness in both technology and financials would be trouble in both engines for U.S. equities. ... Read More
State and local political headwinds are rising just as a break from rising yields saw some utilities begin to catch their breath. ... Read More
Tighter financial conditions are finally on their way after a long period of central bank stimulus. High yield has yet to reflect increased risks, but the heightened number of so-called zombie companies demands attention.... Read More
Four short webcasts detailing the March 16, 2018 Commitment of Traders report.... Read More
10-Year Treasury Large speculators are near an extreme net short position. The chart below averages the z-score (standard deviation from 5-year average) for the four Treasury futures (30-year, 10-year, 5-year and 2-year). The top panel shows 10-year yields and... Read More
Comment On March 16, 2018, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released the Commitments of Traders (CoT) statistics for Tuesday, March 13, 2018. The next chart shows the VIX in the top panel (orange), Open interest in the middle panel... Read More
The U.S. economic cycle has yet to show major cracks or signs of impending recession. But, the pace of rate hikes expected by the Federal Reserve is not yet squaring with realized inflation. Municipal bonds looks primed to rebound in the event inflation fears continue to abate.... Read More
The FOMC and ECB are again on seemingly divergent paths. Sprinkling in increased hedging costs and fiscal spending results in a very difficult to determine outlook for U.S. Treasury yields. History suggests widening expectations for growth and inflation should give rise to term premium into this summer.... Read More
Macro trading dominates options volume on the CBOE.... Read More
A breakdown of U.S. equity ownership and net issuance... Read More
Treasuries and corporates remain the largest debt markets in the United States. Who owns these markets?... Read More
Defined benefit plans still make up 41% of retirement assets in the United States. ... Read More
A look at stock market total returns since March 9, 2009... Read More
Bond market returns since March 9, 2009... Read More