Inflation expectations are rising according to both market measures and public surveys.... Read More
For the last few decades the U.S. has been in a low interest rate environment where deficit spending would not cause major issues. A 40-year high in inflation and the higher rates that followed are stressing the country's finances.... Read More
Equity prices are fully valued, suggesting low future returns. The Fed is cutting rates, yet long-term yields are rising along with inflation fears. The economy remains strong. Given all this, where do bonds fit in a portfolio? Is the 60/40 as we know it dead? ... Read More
Jim Bianco joins Fox Business to discuss the K-Shaped Economy, Stubborn Sticky Inflation & Tariffs with Charles Payne.... Read More
Is the rise in term premium a worrisome risk warning or a return to norms seen pre-QE?... Read More
SOFR rose above the top end of the Fed's target range for the second quarter-end in a row. Usage of the Fed's Standing Repo Facility remains low, however.... Read More
The beginning of the year is a good time to look at seasonality, both returns and volatility.... Read More
TLT's flows suggest bond traders are abandoning the long end of the yield curve. This is consistent with the idea that Fed cuts are raising inflation expectations.... Read More
The TIPS market and consumer surveys expect higher inflation levels in 2025. The bond market is responding with higher yields even though the Fed is cutting rates and sees more rate cuts into 2025.... Read More
A look at outstanding amounts of Treasuries, corporates, agencies, munis and open market paper... Read More
The amount of outstanding private credit in the U.S. experienced a brief decline during the financial crisis, but government debt grew throughout the entire period.... Read More
Private pension funds typically have much smaller funding gaps than their government counterparts.... Read More
Defined benefit plans continue to be replaced by IRAs and defined contribution plans.... Read More
Over the past couple decades, households' real estate equity and direct stock ownership have moved in lockstep.... Read More
Roughly 41% of FDIC deposits in the U.S. are uninsured.... Read More
Long-term rates started rising right after the Fed started cutting the funds rate, similar to what happened when the Fed cut rates before 1981. Powell needs to explain why this is not a signal of a policy mistake. Otherwise, yields will continue to climb until the Fed ends the cutting campaign.... Read More