Tag Archives: Markets
Markets
ETF Dominance
ETF Dominance
Posted By Jim Bianco
U.S. Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) account for about one-quarter of the trading on U.S. stock and options exchanges.... Read More
Markets
Is Inflation “Fever” Really Breaking?
Is Inflation “Fever” Really Breaking?
Posted By Jim Bianco
The consensus continues to view inflation as transitory across the globe, soon returning to 2%. This rests on an understanding that nothing has changed and the pre-pandemic economy is returning.... Read More
Markets
Alternative Signs of a Peaking Housing Market?
Alternative Signs of a Peaking Housing Market?
Posted By Greg Blaha
Several alternative measures of the housing market suggest the exuberance seen since the pandemic have peaked.... Read More
Markets
Seasonality Trends as Summer Ends in the Northern Hemisphere
Seasonality Trends as Summer Ends in the Northern Hemisphere
Posted By Greg Blaha
As summer gives way to fall in the northern hemisphere, several seasonal total return trends also change.... Read More
Markets
Will Inflation Projections and Forward Curves Prove Correct?
Will Inflation Projections and Forward Curves Prove Correct?
Posted By Jim Bianco
Inflation projections and forward curves suggest many still believe inflation will quickly return to 2%, giving the Fed reason to stop hiking and start cutting rates. Risk markets, like equities and high yield, are rallying in anticipation of easier policy. Unfortunately these projections and forward curves do not have good track records in predicting the future.... Read More
Markets
Midterm Probability Update
Midterm Probability Update
Posted By Jim Bianco
The latest data shows Democrats have closed the polling gap with Republicans. The Senate is now favored to stay in Democrat control.... Read More
Markets
The Composition of the Stock Market Rally
The Composition of the Stock Market Rally
Posted By Alex Malitas
The broad stock market averages bottomed in mid-June. What has rallied and what has not?... Read More
Markets
Inflation Forecasting Errors
Inflation Forecasting Errors
Posted By Jim Bianco
Both the Cleveland Federal Reserve's CPI Nowcast and the median Wall Street CPI estimate have proven too low in 17 of the last 18 months. Such a consistent one-sided forecasting error suggests a change in the economy is not being accounted for, meaning inflation might be more persistent than most believe.... Read More
Markets
Where Is Inflation Going?
Where Is Inflation Going?
Posted By Jim Bianco
While the word 'transitory' has been stricken from economic playbooks, risk markets are still hoping inflation data will allow the Fed to wind down rate hikes in the near future. Is this wishful thinking?... Read More
Markets
Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast Update
Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast Update
July CPI MoM 63 Est 0.2% Median 0.3% Cleveland Fed Nowcast 0.0% to 0.4% Range July CPI YoY 44 Est 8.7% Median 8.8% Cleveland Fed Nowcast 8.5% to 8.9% Range July Core CPI MoM 63 Est 0.5% Median 0.5% Cleveland... Read More
Markets
Retail Traders and the Rally
Retail Traders and the Rally
Posted By Alex Malitas
Equity markets have rallied despite several headwinds. In 2020 and 2021, retail traders bought every dip. In 2022, these traders don't seem convinced. ... Read More
Markets
A New Name Among the World’s Richest
A New Name Among the World’s Richest
Posted By Greg Blaha
Indian tycoon Gautam Adani has seen his net worth increase more than anyone else in the world since the end of 2020. He is now the fourth richest person in the world.... Read More
Markets
Fed Pivot Update
Fed Pivot Update
Posted By Jim Bianco
Fed officials are signaling they might not be done with the inflation fight. Market pricing is not so sure.... Read More
Markets
How Credit Is Trading?
How Credit Is Trading?
The high yield market, and we would argue the larger credit markets, have had two cycles over the past decade - buy and hedge. Right now we are in a hedging cycle. Persistent inflation and QT could initiate the first selling cycle in a long time.... Read More