Tag Archives: Markets
Markets
Bond Market Carnage Update
Bond Market Carnage Update
Posted By Jim Bianco
When measured on a total return basis, the bond market is in a historic decline. Yet, futures positioning and economists' opinions are not overly bearish. Momentum-driven research is very bearish and stands in opposition. Add it up and sentiment data is not suggesting a capitulation low in prices has taken place yet.... Read More
Markets
Expect a VERY Aggressive Fed
Expect a VERY Aggressive Fed
Posted By Jim Bianco
"Hike to something breaks" is now the Fed's unofficial policy. This could mean a plunging stock market/economy or runaway inflation. But the Fed is not stopping until something breaks.... Read More
Markets
A COVID Update
A COVID Update
Posted By Jim Bianco
A look at the latest infection counts around the world... Read More
Markets
Why We Have a Hot Housing Market
Why We Have a Hot Housing Market
Posted By Alex Malitas
Inflation is at multi-decade highs, interest rates are rising, and the Fed has signaled they are willing to do anything necessary to bring down inflation. Despite this backdrop, the housing market is as hot as ever. We argue this is not a bubble, but a fundamental shift in demand.... Read More
Markets
How Serious Should the Fed Be?
How Serious Should the Fed Be?
Posted By Jim Bianco
The market is concerned the Fed has fallen behind on the inflation front, so yields are spiking and bank stocks are falling in kind. The remedy is for the Fed to get serious and start raising rates 50 basis points at every meeting going forward. Yes, this risks the Fed doing too much and breaking something. But this is the consequence of the Fed dismissing inflation as transitory last year and staying way too easy for way too long.... Read More
Markets
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – April 18th, 2022
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – April 18th, 2022
Jim Bianco joins CNBC?s Closing Bell to discuss Rate Hikes & how the Fed views Earnings Season Jim Bianco: The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index began in 1990. Its market value is currently $62.8 TRILLION and has over 28,000 member bonds.... Read More
Markets
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – April 13th, 2022
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – April 13th, 2022
Colleague: 2s10s is 45bps steeper in 7 trading days….that’s gotta be a recent record in move over such a short time frame… Jim Bianco: What is driving this steepening is a big surge in the long-end. When TOTAL RETURN losses... Read More
Markets
The Fed Is Not Risk Markets’ Friend
The Fed Is Not Risk Markets’ Friend
Posted By Jim Bianco
Quantitative tightening will actively work against financial asset holders, creating a reverse wealth effect that destroys demand.... Read More
Markets
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – April 7th, 2022
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – April 7th, 2022
Jim Bianco: 81% of a 50 bps hike on May 4 (to 0.75% to 1.00%) 87% of a second 50 bps hike on June 15 (to 1.15% to 1.50%) 65% of a third 50 bps hike on July 27 (to... Read More
Markets
Active Versus Passive Performance
Active Versus Passive Performance
Posted By Alex Malitas
Active managers across markets are struggling as the Fed begins its rate hiking campaign. Investors seem willing to ride out market volatility, but not bet that money managers will keep up.... Read More
Markets
Extreme Positioning Shift Across Markets
Extreme Positioning Shift Across Markets
Posted By Alex Malitas
Risk markets are rallying in the face of an inverted yield curve, the highest inflation in 40 years, and continuing war in Ukraine. We discuss current market positioning.... Read More
Markets
The 10-Year When the Curve Inverts
The 10-Year When the Curve Inverts
Posted By Jim Bianco
When the 10-year less 2-year yield curve inverts, 10-year yields often peak. When the 10-year less 2-year yield curve turns positive again, the Fed is often about to start cutting rates to head off a recession. 10-year yields historically decline during this period.... Read More
Markets
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – April 1st, 2022
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – April 1st, 2022
Jim Bianco: Craig Fuller, the CEO if Freightwaves believes a recession is imminent. I’ve been reading American Shipper and Freightwaves for over a year now (both publications have the same owner). They have been dead right about the state of... Read More
Markets
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – March 29th, 2022
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – March 29th, 2022
Jim Bianco: It seems the only thing that every expert ruled out was Ukraine could actually win this war, let alone win it in less than six weeks. To be clear, it is not over and Ukraine might still not... Read More
Markets
New Wounds in the Bond Market Bloodbath
New Wounds in the Bond Market Bloodbath
Posted By Jim Bianco
Markets often trend until they force a change of behavior. The bond market is trending hard. It has not yet forced a change of behavior, but we believe it eventually will.... Read More