Demand is up, refining capacity is falling, imports are hard to come by, and China and Air Travel are expected to increase.... Read More
Inflation is not going down without extreme policy intervention to force it lower. It is not going down by itself. And that extreme policy has a high probability of causing a recession.... Read More
56% of households owning mutual funds make more than $100k per year.... Read More
Active equity funds continue to charge 10x the fees of passive equity funds.... Read More
Over a third of U.S. households own an IRA. The difference in ownership between the highest and lowest income buckets is staggering.... Read More
A look at the holdings of government-only money market funds versus prime money market funds... Read More
For the time being, the labor market is giving the Fed the cover it needs to tighten financial conditions. This essentially means it is allowing stocks to falter in order to rein in demand and inflation. The payrolls report may have taken a back seat to inflation releases, but it will nonetheless play a part in determining how aggressively the Fed will proceed in its fight against inflation.... Read More
The Federal Reserve's reverse repo facility is now the parking spot for over $2 trillion. This acts as another version of tightening as the Fed is getting ready to start quantitative tightening.... Read More
The end of bear markets tend to exhibit heightened volatility and increased trading volumes. Despite significant selling pressure in recent weeks, volatility indices do not indicate panic. Given this, it is important to note the connection between implied and realized volatility in markets.... Read More
Retail traders and dip buyers dominated the markets in 2020 and 2021. The current bear market has dented those groups' conviction, but not yet to the point of capitulation.... Read More
Bull markets rarely get overbought ... TINA, FOMO, and BTD. Bear markets are the opposite, they rarely get oversold, and "tradable lows" are all but impossible to measure with bull market metrics. ... Read More
How much have higher yields affected the Treasury's interest expenses?... Read More
We check in with some economic strength indices to measure where we are now versus one-year averages. ... Read More
The United States is the only place in the world where case counts are rising.... Read More
The Fed put is not 100% dead, but taming inflation is now the Fed's priority. The stress levels at which they supported markets in the past are no longer as relevant.... Read More
Valuations have come down but are still higher than average. For forward P/E ratios to remain lower, earnings will have to continue to be strong. This may be a tall order given concerns about recession and the highest inflation in 40 years.... Read More
The mix of fiscal and monetary stimulus in recent years created an extra 3% inflation in the U.S. The Fed intends to remove this excess stimulus by creating a reverse wealth effect.... Read More