Tag Archives: Markets
Markets
Quantifying Liquidity Concerns
Quantifying Liquidity Concerns
Posted By Alex Malitas
Last week we raised concerns that declining liquidity across markets could be a sign that the Fed is already close to breaking something. Ahead of the Fed's planned balance sheet runoff, they have warned that liquidity is indeed an issue.... Read More
Markets
Another ARK Update as Cathie Wood Doubles Down
Another ARK Update as Cathie Wood Doubles Down
Posted By Alex Malitas
Cathie Wood and the ARK ETFs, headlined by ARK Innovation (ARKK), are arguably the most important manager/complex on Wall Street. After their outstanding performance in 2020, these funds significantly underperformed in 2021 and have had an abysmal start to 2022. Wood is sticking to her guns and so are her investors.... Read More
Markets
Code Words to Look for at Today’s FOMC Meeting
Code Words to Look for at Today’s FOMC Meeting
Posted By Jim Bianco
When Powell described the labor market as being in good shape, he was saying it could handle aggressive rate hikes without massive job losses. Will he signal this again and set the stage for a 75 basis point hike in June?... Read More
Markets
From Transitory to Breaking Something
From Transitory to Breaking Something
Posted By Jim Bianco
Long-term debt and equity traders still think the fed funds market has priced in too many hikes. Stock and bond traders initially perceived inflation to be transitory. Now they believe the Fed is on the verge of going too far and breaking something.... Read More
Markets
What Might Break in the Markets?
What Might Break in the Markets?
Posted By Alex Malitas
If the Fed does not tighten far enough, they risk a period of longer and higher inflation. If the Fed raises rates at a strong pace, something in the market is likely to break. This is the catch-22 of the year 2022.... Read More
Markets
Bond Market Carnage Update
Bond Market Carnage Update
Posted By Jim Bianco
When measured on a total return basis, the bond market is in a historic decline. Yet, futures positioning and economists' opinions are not overly bearish. Momentum-driven research is very bearish and stands in opposition. Add it up and sentiment data is not suggesting a capitulation low in prices has taken place yet.... Read More
Markets
Expect a VERY Aggressive Fed
Expect a VERY Aggressive Fed
Posted By Jim Bianco
"Hike to something breaks" is now the Fed's unofficial policy. This could mean a plunging stock market/economy or runaway inflation. But the Fed is not stopping until something breaks.... Read More
Markets
A COVID Update
A COVID Update
Posted By Jim Bianco
A look at the latest infection counts around the world... Read More
Markets
Why We Have a Hot Housing Market
Why We Have a Hot Housing Market
Posted By Alex Malitas
Inflation is at multi-decade highs, interest rates are rising, and the Fed has signaled they are willing to do anything necessary to bring down inflation. Despite this backdrop, the housing market is as hot as ever. We argue this is not a bubble, but a fundamental shift in demand.... Read More
Markets
How Serious Should the Fed Be?
How Serious Should the Fed Be?
Posted By Jim Bianco
The market is concerned the Fed has fallen behind on the inflation front, so yields are spiking and bank stocks are falling in kind. The remedy is for the Fed to get serious and start raising rates 50 basis points at every meeting going forward. Yes, this risks the Fed doing too much and breaking something. But this is the consequence of the Fed dismissing inflation as transitory last year and staying way too easy for way too long.... Read More
Markets
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – April 18th, 2022
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – April 18th, 2022
Jim Bianco joins CNBC?s Closing Bell to discuss Rate Hikes & how the Fed views Earnings Season Jim Bianco: The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index began in 1990. Its market value is currently $62.8 TRILLION and has over 28,000 member bonds.... Read More
Markets
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – April 13th, 2022
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – April 13th, 2022
Colleague: 2s10s is 45bps steeper in 7 trading days….that’s gotta be a recent record in move over such a short time frame… Jim Bianco: What is driving this steepening is a big surge in the long-end. When TOTAL RETURN losses... Read More
Markets
The Fed Is Not Risk Markets’ Friend
The Fed Is Not Risk Markets’ Friend
Posted By Jim Bianco
Quantitative tightening will actively work against financial asset holders, creating a reverse wealth effect that destroys demand.... Read More
Markets
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – April 7th, 2022
Bespoke Commentary from Bianco Research & Arbor Data Science – April 7th, 2022
Jim Bianco: 81% of a 50 bps hike on May 4 (to 0.75% to 1.00%) 87% of a second 50 bps hike on June 15 (to 1.15% to 1.50%) 65% of a third 50 bps hike on July 27 (to... Read More