TLT's flows suggest bond traders are abandoning the long end of the yield curve. This is consistent with the idea that Fed cuts are raising inflation expectations.... Read More
The TIPS market and consumer surveys expect higher inflation levels in 2025. The bond market is responding with higher yields even though the Fed is cutting rates and sees more rate cuts into 2025.... Read More
A look at outstanding amounts of Treasuries, corporates, agencies, munis and open market paper... Read More
The amount of outstanding private credit in the U.S. experienced a brief decline during the financial crisis, but government debt grew throughout the entire period.... Read More
Private pension funds typically have much smaller funding gaps than their government counterparts.... Read More
Defined benefit plans continue to be replaced by IRAs and defined contribution plans.... Read More
Over the past couple decades, households' real estate equity and direct stock ownership have moved in lockstep.... Read More
Roughly 41% of FDIC deposits in the U.S. are uninsured.... Read More
Long-term rates started rising right after the Fed started cutting the funds rate, similar to what happened when the Fed cut rates before 1981. Powell needs to explain why this is not a signal of a policy mistake. Otherwise, yields will continue to climb until the Fed ends the cutting campaign.... Read More
The market continues to rally on the backs of a select few stocks in the S&P 500.... Read More
As sellers' leverage in the market dissipated and mortgage rates increased, many homeowners decided to stay put in their existing homes. New listings dropped markedly since June 2022.... Read More
Jim Bianco joins Bloomberg to discuss the Federal Reserve, Payrolls Report & Bond Market with Jonathan Ferro, Annmarie Hordern & Dani Burger.... Read More
Jim Bianco joins Schwab Network to explain why the Fed should not cut rates anymore with Caroline Woods.... Read More
Jim Bianco joins Bloomberg Radio to explain why the Fed does not need to cut interest rates with Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney.... Read More
The Fed does not understand why long-term yields are rising. For now, it assumes the reason is unrelated to its policy. If they are wrong, more cuts will drive long-term yields higher and drag down the U.S. economy, potentially making matters worse.... Read More
