Private pension funds have much smaller funding gaps than their government counterparts.... Read More
Defined benefit plans continue to be replaced by IRAs and defined contribution plans.... Read More
A home may be the biggest purchase most people make in their lives, but households' home equity is actually surpassed by households' direct stock ownership.... Read More
Personal consumption continues to make up a larger portion of U.S. GDP as time progresses.... Read More
Almost 46% of FDIC deposits in the U.S. are uninsured.... Read More
If you have any further questions on this material please contact me at: gus.handler@arborresearch.com Ben Breitholtz: Through Powell’s presser yesterday, officials have ramped up inflation discussions to the highest frequency since mid-2016. Nonetheless, employment continues to reign supreme. Financial stability,... Read More
If you have any further questions on this material please contact me at: gushandler@arborresearch.com Ben Breitholtz: I see implied vol expectations across the curve are FALLING! The moderate bump we saw in 10-year vol is vanishing. Jim Bianco: That’s it,... Read More
The Chinese economy is hitting the skids hard. Their most vulnerable companies are in trouble and the government is cracking down on the private sector. The People's Bank of China is injecting huge sums of liquidity into the economy, its most since January.... Read More
Jim Bianco: Bloomberg has a weekly consumer confidence report that breaks it down by self-described political alignment. As this chart shows, political alignment might be the strongest of all traits in determining consumer confidence (see the bottom panel and note... Read More
The week of September 13 was the BLS's payroll survey week, which will produce a critical metric for the Fed's taper decision. Similar to last week, we check in with COVID and Hurricane Ida to understand if another disappointing payroll report is on the table, further stalling the Fed's tapering plans.... Read More
Jim Bianco: The story that will not go away for the Fed gets worse and worse. Now Powell is involved. CNBC: Fed Chief Powell, other officials owned securities central bank bought during Covid pandemic Steve Liesman – Amid an outcry... Read More
Car prices are soaring again as demand for cars meets limited supply. The transitory CPI component of car prices could be poised to turn higher.... Read More
Jim Bianco: Bloomberg: Fed Seen Announcing Bond Taper in November, Rate Liftoff in 2023 Steve Matthews and Kyungjin Yoo – The Federal Reserve will probably hint at its meeting next week that it is moving toward scaling back monthly asset... Read More
Biden's approval rating is down a lot. Is his spending and stimulus agenda now at risk?... Read More
Ben Breitholtz: Solid beat by retails sales, which rose 2.0% MoM ex auto and gas. Remember search activity nicely rebounded throughout August! Weak sales found almost only in chip related businesses. Also, strong retail sales also supports the moderately increased... Read More
COVID continues to look like it is peaking in the United States. This should lead to reopening stocks outperforming and higher interest rates.... Read More
Jim Bianco joins Fox Business to discuss the CPI Report, US 10-Year Treasury and Fed Taper Timeline Jim Bianco: I was asked about the weightings on CPI reopening components. I added tables on the charts. Ben Breitholtz: Here’s the breakdown... Read More
The Japanese stock market has lagged behind the rest of the developed world. A giant equity bubble popping in the 1990s, an unwillingness to embrace change, and the lack of a large passive ETF market have all contributed to the 31-year drought.... Read More
Colleague: *** CPI for Aug 2021*** CPI m/m: +0.3% (vs +0.4% exp) CPI y/y: +5.3% (vs +5.3% exp) Core m/m: +0.1% (vs +0.3% exp) Core y/y: +4.0% (vs +4.2% exp) Differences between Core and headline CPI m/m were driven by... Read More