Inflation continues to be the biggest economic story so far this year. Either the massive amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus produces inflation or it does not and MMT/UBI wins. Place your bets.... Read More
Peter Forbes: Larger than expected decline in new home sales. Severe weather in February a likely contributor and we already see signs that activity is picking up again in March. Regional declines were -37% for Midwest, -15% for South, -16%... Read More
With stimulus checks now being mailed out, several measures of short-term rates may be worth watching as barometers of potential trouble.... Read More
Wall Street forecaster Jim Bianco expects stocks to get a boost this spring because the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note yield will temporarily retreat. ?The near-term forecast is it?s oversold, and it?s probably due for a rally ? meaning that we would have falling rates,? the Bianco Research president told CNBC?s ?Trading Nation? on Friday.... Read More
Peter Forbes: TSA passenger volume on the rise. Latest Google search data show interest in more ambitious travel (air travel, theme parks, etc) rising steadily. Tweet Jim Bianco: John Authers has a good piece about the bond market today. ... Read More
Twitter: Rick Rieder @RickRieder We?re in the midst of witnessing #BondMarketHistory, as the peak to trough drawdown for the Barclays Long Treasury Index now exceeds -20% (not including today?s move), its worst #drawdown going back 40 years and meeting what many... Read More
Funding markets are under stress and negative rates are a possibility. On the other end of the curve, higher rates continue.... Read More
Twitter: Robin Brooks @RobinBrooksIIF The share of US debt held by foreigners has fallen to its lowest level since 2002 (lhs, blue). That’s not due to foreign selling, but rather that foreigners aren’t buying (rhs, pink), even as US debt... Read More
Given the struggles in Australia and Japan with yield curve control, should U.S. bond short sellers be afraid of the Fed?... Read More
Jay Powell has two issues to address today. Convince the market has benign inflation forecast is correct and what to do about plunging short rates. Both are going to be difficult.... Read More
Ben Breitholtz: Consumer spending by low-middle income households saw a large jump in vacation-related services into the end of February. Might help explain some of the out-performance across airlines as of late. The JETS ETF is up over 28% YTD.... Read More
Jim Bianco: CoT out for March 9. 2-year large speculators are big-time short. But the 10-year remains neutral (second panel) with asset managers (bottom panel) not at a rare short and hedge funds (third panel) moving aggressively long. To properly... Read More
Europe has been slow to roll out vaccines and COVID infection counts have been turning higher. The US, UK, and Israel have been more aggressive with vaccine distribution and their infection counts continue to fall.... Read More
Banks' net income increased in the fourth quarter, largely due to a massive reduction in loan loss reserves.... Read More
If growth versus value is really about interest rates, then the market might not be thinking that reopening stocks are going to soar, as the reopening-to-disruptive ratio is not definitive in its reversal. If, however, the growth-to-value rotation is about interest rates, it is on the assumption that rising rates are being driven by "R" or relation/real growth and not I" or inflation.... Read More
Ben Breitholtz: Twitter: Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla B of A: ?We believe we are at a secular turning point for both inflation & interest rates,? with ?new central bank mandates, excess fiscal stimulus including UBI, less globalization, fading deflation from disruption, demographics... Read More
Jim Bianco: Measuring the old financial system versus the new one. Jim Bianco: What has worked in the stock market this year? Analyzing a company’s financial position and buying the weaker ones! Jim Bianco: Since June, all the stock... Read More
For quite a few years now, the high yield market has been driven by macro trading from options and ETFs. Maybe it is now returning to a market of high yield bonds in which credit is differentiated by issuers. Weaning this market off its macro dominance would be a positive development as it makes capital allocation much more efficient.... Read More