While the rapid rise in 10-year yields might be suggestive of a massive short in the Treasury market, an analysis of the data shows this is not really the case.... Read More
While the Fed continues to suggest the first rate hike won't occur until 2023 or later, the market is beginning to price in a hike as early as mid-2022.... Read More
It is often said a trend in bond yields continues until something breaks or the Fed is forced to change. To date, nothing has broken, but cracks are beginning to appear.... Read More
Bitcoins' volatility of late is standard fare for disruptive technologies. We would not be surprised if it has another 70% drawdown, followed by yet another new high.... Read More
Jim Bianco joined Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough for a special, in-depth conversation between two investing heavyweights on the current financial market and economic paradigm. This conversation originally aired live on Tuesday March 2, 2021.... Read More
If economists see little change in inflation expectations, maybe inflation is not priced into the markets to the degree many might believe.... Read More
The reflation (real growth)/inflation debate will continue. We still believe this will be resolved with the market pricing in higher levels of inflation later this year. The base effect rise in inflation will begin in coming months, which may offer a ready-made excuse to dismiss concerns over higher prices. The risk is not higher yields, but higher yields in a chaotic fashion, much like we saw last week.... Read More
Sovereign bond yields are soaring in developed countries and reflation (real growth) hopes are giving way to inflation fears. Central banks' yield curve control policies are being rejected, for now. ... Read More
In yesterday's testimony Chairman Powell tried to portray rising interest rates as a statement of confidence. Markets are mixed on this idea.... Read More
Rates are moving higher amid fears booming real growth will come with more inflation. The output gap can be filled by the proposed stimulus package, allowing inflation to rise.... Read More
Clearly valuation metrics are already stretched. However, traders can ignore valuations for quite a long period of time.... Read More
While the markets are pricing in a speedy return to normal, reality may come up short of these expectations. We fear the return of inflation more than most. There is a difference between relation and inflation. Right now the market sees reflation (aka real growth), but we believe this will morph into inflation later this year.... Read More
The Japanese stock market has lagged the rest of the developed world. A giant equity bubble popping in the 1990s, an unwillingness to embrace change, and the lack of a large passive ETF market have all contributed to the 30-year drought.... Read More
So do investors see this rise in rates as a healthy reflation or worrisome inflation? For now, the reflation narrative is winning. We expect the inflation narrative to take over later this year.... Read More
Bank lending as a percentage of assets recently hit an all-time low.... Read More
The Fed is preventing the natural counter-balance of money rushing out of bonds during stock rallies. The idea that the Fed is backstopping the market has reduced the perception of risk.... Read More