The Fed believes their security purchase programs are temporary. They are scheduled to end on September 30, but many investors believe these programs will be extended into 2021.... Read More
A look at the maturity schedule of the Fed's balance sheet... Read More
The markets are caught between two powerful forces, a virus that appears to be picking up speed once again and fiscal/monetary support that appears to be unlimited. Which side prevails in this scenario?... Read More
Last week Jim sat down with the Alpha Trader podcast hosts Aaron Task and Stephen to Discuss the economy and the Fed... Read More
New daily infection counts have started rising in parts of the country. The markets have been slow to respond to this development, focusing instead on the Fed's massive stimulus and a belief that additional shutdowns will not be needed.... Read More
As the economy re-opens, infection counts keep spiking. What should be expected next?... Read More
Yesterday Chairman Powell again hinted at the Fed put, a message which retails traders have heard loud and clear.... Read More
Updating the latest on COVID's infection growth... Read More
Market dynamics are changing. They need to be understood and not dismissed.... Read More
Volatility usually requires a couple elements. First, there must be some event that causes traders to rethink pricing. Second, there must be a large number of trades on the wrong side of this repricing. While fears of a second wave may be providing some of the impetus for a selloff, the massive bets being made by the retail crowd are exacerbating the moves.... Read More
While many are left debating the size and significance of the retail bid, the market does not sell off 6% on merely bad news. These types of daily moves occur when speculative bets reach a fever pitch.... Read More
The amount of outstanding private credit in the U.S. experienced a brief decline during the financial crisis, but government debt grew throughout the entire period. Both are now at new highs.... Read More
A look at outstanding amounts of Treasuries, corporates, agencies, munis and open market paper... Read More
Private pension funds have much smaller funding gaps than their government counterparts.... Read More
Defined benefit plans continue to be replaced by IRAs and defined contribution plans.... Read More
The central bank has fostered an unprecedented amount of risk-taking at the expense of the long-term health of the economy.... Read More
For weeks we have been detailing the unfolding retail mania in the stock market. It seems to be going to new heights.... Read More