Jim Bianco joined Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough for a special, in-depth conversation between two investing heavyweights on the current financial market and economic paradigm. This conversation originally aired live on Tuesday March 2, 2021.... Read More
If economists see little change in inflation expectations, maybe inflation is not priced into the markets to the degree many might believe.... Read More
The reflation (real growth)/inflation debate will continue. We still believe this will be resolved with the market pricing in higher levels of inflation later this year. The base effect rise in inflation will begin in coming months, which may offer a ready-made excuse to dismiss concerns over higher prices. The risk is not higher yields, but higher yields in a chaotic fashion, much like we saw last week.... Read More
Sovereign bond yields are soaring in developed countries and reflation (real growth) hopes are giving way to inflation fears. Central banks' yield curve control policies are being rejected, for now. ... Read More
In yesterday's testimony Chairman Powell tried to portray rising interest rates as a statement of confidence. Markets are mixed on this idea.... Read More
Rates are moving higher amid fears booming real growth will come with more inflation. The output gap can be filled by the proposed stimulus package, allowing inflation to rise.... Read More
Clearly valuation metrics are already stretched. However, traders can ignore valuations for quite a long period of time.... Read More
While the markets are pricing in a speedy return to normal, reality may come up short of these expectations. We fear the return of inflation more than most. There is a difference between relation and inflation. Right now the market sees reflation (aka real growth), but we believe this will morph into inflation later this year.... Read More
The Japanese stock market has lagged the rest of the developed world. A giant equity bubble popping in the 1990s, an unwillingness to embrace change, and the lack of a large passive ETF market have all contributed to the 30-year drought.... Read More
So do investors see this rise in rates as a healthy reflation or worrisome inflation? For now, the reflation narrative is winning. We expect the inflation narrative to take over later this year.... Read More
Bank lending as a percentage of assets recently hit an all-time low.... Read More
The Fed is preventing the natural counter-balance of money rushing out of bonds during stock rallies. The idea that the Fed is backstopping the market has reduced the perception of risk.... Read More
Although house prices have risen markedly in the past six months, a few cities across the U.S. have yet to regain their pre-2006 levels in home prices.... Read More
While the pace of vaccinations is ramping up across the globe, these programs are still in their early stages. Israel should provide the first real data point on herd immunity goals. Infection rates are peaking, but this may be due to weather changes more than vaccinations.... Read More
Two conclusions can be true at once. The market can be exhibiting signs of mania. At the same time, this new group is disrupting Wall Street and not going away. Similar disruptions happened in newspaper, taxi, hotel, retail, and communication industries. Now the financial markets appear to be taking their turn.... Read More
Why the Treasury is borrowing much less this quarter and why borrowing might boom this summer... Read More