A look at foreign net sales and purchases of U.S. Treasuries, agencies, corporates and equities through October... Read More
The market, which has been priced for perfection lately, has taken a hit as news of a new strain of coronavirus emerges in the U.K.... Read More
Markets are looking past the near-term and hoping federal stimulus can help the economy. Since this is expected, markets are living in the second half of 2021, a period of mass vaccination and a return to some sort of new normal in which concerts, sporting venues, and restaurants will no longer have restrictions. This may very well be the case. But before we get there, the slowing economy is about to get worse. The federal government throwing money at everyone would help, but as of this writing, we still have no deal.... Read More
The amount of outstanding private credit in the U.S. experienced a brief decline during the financial crisis, but government debt grew throughout the entire period. Both are now at new highs.... Read More
A look at outstanding amounts of Treasuries, corporates, agencies, munis and open market paper... Read More
Private pension funds have much smaller funding gaps than their government counterparts.... Read More
Defined benefit plans continue to be replaced by IRAs and defined contribution plans.... Read More
We fear the market may have to force the government's hand in reducing stimulus spending. A bad market reaction, perhaps in the form of a big rise in inflation caused by too much stimulus, would be one such scenario. If nothing "bad" happens, why would the government stop regularly mail checks to everyone?... Read More
There is more than excessive optimism in the market. There is a structural shift in how retail investors put their money to work. They are buying stocks directly and buying options (leverage) to a degree never seen.... Read More
One should always consider the political nature of consumer confidence readings when judging the economy. This is probably even truer after a contested election.... Read More
Wall Street strategists are bullish and perceive record valuations to be the "new normal." The belief is the Fed will continue to suppress interest rates, allowing these valuations to persist.... Read More
Are interest rates heading higher on real growth or higher inflation expectations? Risk markets would respond very differently depending on the reason.... Read More
The public's shift from mutual funds and ETFs towards speculating in individual stocks and options continues without pause. Last week's options volume boomed to a new record. All signs suggest the mania is making new peaks.... Read More
Jim was on Bloomberg TV this morning talking about the Fed and what they should do at the December FOMC meeting.... Read More
The outflows from funds should not be seen as the result of investors de-risking. Rather, investing styles and preferences are changing.... Read More
Despite the markets "living in the second half of 2021," signs are emerging that the next few quarters will be a struggle. Analysts are not as optimistic about the return to normal.... Read More