An update of alternative data sources shows China is still far from resuming normal economic activity.... Read More
As COVID-19's growth rate fades in China, the government will be faced with the task of restarting its economy while remaining cautious enough to prevent further spreading the disease.... Read More
Given how quickly events are unfolding in the markets, we offer our thoughts on infection growth, the Fed's potential response, and the effects on Trump's bid for re-election.... Read More
World financial markets are in risk-off mode today as cases of the COVID-19 virus have grown outside of China.... Read More
While stocks soared to new all-time highs last week, the bond market has been telling a far different story. Central banks may be correct when they state their toolbox will be limited in future downturns, but that isn't stopping the markets from expecting further action.... Read More
In the post-crisis era, markets advance on good news/data, but they also advance on the promise of easy money. While supply chain disruptions from the coronavirus are difficult to assess for the time being, the prospect of easy money from central banks around the world has propped up the markets.... Read More
Using cable news coverage as a gauge of concern/interest, we find little panic over the coronavirus. This may suggest little financial market downside has been discounted.... Read More
The Fed offered two term repo operations this week with a reduced size of $30 billion. Both operations were oversubscribed.... Read More
On January 22, 2020, Jim sat down with Doubleline Co-CIO Jeff Sherman for his Sherman Show podcast. ... Read More
Yesterday Jim joined The Final Round on Yahoo Finance to discuss the coronavirus's impact on the markets, both foreign and domestic.... Read More
Many economists are hoping for the best and assuming any economic impact from the coronavirus will be minimal. Because of the exponential growth rate of these types of outbreaks, it is nearly impossible to asses the true economic impact until the growth rate begins to subside. Several metrics will bear watching in the coming days to gauge the potential economic fallout.... Read More
This coming week, the Fed's term repo operations will be reduced from $35 billion to $30 billion. While this will slowly pull back the Fed's involvement in the repo market, their T-bill purchases will more than outpace lost repo support.... Read More
On January 6, 2020, Jim participated in DoubleLine's inaugural Round Table Prime to discuss his outlook on the global economy, central bank policy and much more... Read More
The growth in coronavirus infections has continued along a geometric progression for the last 12 days. While not overlooking the human tragedy, the markets have the difficult task of pricing an event that has a small chance of being devastating to global growth, but a more likely outcome of being contained.... Read More
Our latest Bloomberg column argues the Fed's response to the repo market's liquidity problems is not a long-term fix, but a simple tweak to the daily operations can help.... Read More