Tag Archives: Markets
Investors Too Quickly Turn Pessimistic on Inflation
Posted By Ben Breitholtz
U.S. core inflation is rolling over and Fed officials are no longer in agreement, but we do not yet see a dramatic global slowdown persisting.... Read More
Fed Rhetoric Loses Hawk Talons
Posted By Ben Breitholtz
Tumbling inflation expectations and slowing global growth are tempering hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve. The probability of Powell pausing has risen to 54%.... Read More
Focus on Restraining Financial Leverage Favors Yen Strength
Posted By Peter Forbes
Chairman Powell made it explicit in yesterday?s remarks that excessive leverage and weakening underwriting quality are serious concerns. A wave of deleveraging in global risk markets is likely to boost the yen against the U.S. dollar.... Read More
Weekly Research Roundup
Posted By Ryan Malo
Selected charts and excerpts from some of our research over the past week.... Read More
U.S. Inflation Expectations Plummet, Hawkish Focus Turns to Financial Leverage
Posted By Ben Breitholtz
The swift drop in U.S. inflation expectations will be noted by the Federal Reserve in upcoming communications. But, a shifting focus to reining in leverage will likely not lead to the expected drop in rate hike timing.... Read More
Weakening Consumer Interest in Mortgages, Home Improvement
Posted By Peter Forbes
Consumer search interest in mortgages continues to fade. Fortunes have turned for the home improvement retail industry which had been thriving in a slowing housing market as recently as September. ... Read More
Investors Beginning to Accept the New Risk-On/Off Paradigm
Posted By Ben Breitholtz
Investors are seemingly coming to terms with the new risk-on/off paradigm evidenced by positive flows to risk assets while the appetite for short duration remains ravenous. All in all, this period of de-risking commencing in late January 2018 is still very much in process.... Read More
How Important Are Tariffs and Friday’s G20 Meeting?
Posted By Jim Bianco
The media continues to hyperventilate about tariffs and CEOs feed this belief. Away from the cameras, these same CEOs continue to tell their shareholders the situation is manageable. This will not stop the financial media from whipping everyone into a frenzy about Friday's G20 meeting. Don't get caught in the hype.... Read More
Deleveraging a Risk in Wake of Oil Collapse
Posted By Peter Forbes
The last two similarly steep declines in oil prices helped trigger waves of deleveraging in financial markets. A similar echo of deleveraging is a distinct possibility in coming weeks and would be a headwind for banks. ... Read More
CoT Detail: Interest Rates
CoT Detail: 2-Year Treasury Large Specs and Leveraged Traders Are At A Net Short Extreme.... Read More
The Struggles of Asset Allocation
Posted By Jim Bianco
Concerns over inflation's return are driving the Fed's mission to hike rates. This has led to a high correlation among asset classes, making it more difficult to find positive returning investments.... Read More
U.S Economic Data Becomes the Top Performer
Posted By Ben Breitholtz
Long-end U.S. Treasury yields will be weighed down by slowing global growth. Term premium contained within a 50 bps range for the longest streak on record reflects investors' refusal to match the Federal Reserve's hawkish bent.... Read More
Downside Risks for U.K. Growth
Posted By Peter Forbes
Weakening search interest for industrial categories and both consumer and commercial credit highlight downside risks for U.K. growth. The gap between market expectations and the Bank of England's public stance is widening. ... Read More
The Future of Money Management
Posted By Jim Bianco
Is the future of money management big data and coding? ... Read More
Options Traders Turn Very Pessimistic on Inflation
Posted By Ben Breitholtz
Slowing global growth and tumbling energy prices are weighing heavily on U.S. inflation expectations, which markets continue to peg as the de facto Fed chair.... Read More
The New Corporate Bond Benchmark – General Electric
Posted By Jim Bianco
The story of this credit cycle is ETF hedging and General Electric is the issuer getting the most focus.... Read More