Tag Archives: Markets
U.S. High Yield Says “Pffft” to Global Financial Stress
Posted By Ben Breitholtz
U.S. high yield has lost all connection to global financial stress, continuing a streak of stable positive returns. But, investors may be taking notice of this strange disconnection, steering assets instead to large cap equities and long-end Treasuries.... Read More
Monetary Policy Uncertainty is Another Weight on Australia
Posted By Peter Forbes
The spread between official policy rates in the U.S. and Australia reached a historic wide yesterday. Uncertainty about monetary and trade policy are likely to drive a weaker Australian dollar and wider sovereign yield spreads. ... Read More
Defined Benefit Plans Still Make Up 40% of U.S. Retirement Assets
Posted By Greg Blaha
Defined benefit plans still make up more than 40% of retirement assets in the United States.... Read More
Student Loans Continue to Skyrocket
Posted By Greg Blaha
Student loans now total $1.53 trillion.... Read More
Sizing Up the Real Estate Market
Posted By Greg Blaha
A look at the size of the real estate market in the U.S., including residential and commercial... Read More
Comparing the Value of Credit in the U.S. to GDP
Posted By Greg Blaha
The amount of outstanding private credit in the U.S. experienced a brief decline during the financial crisis, but government debt grew throughout the entire period. Both are now at new highs.... Read More
U.S. 10-Year Real Yields Rising on Hawkish Fed Rhetoric
Posted By Ben Breitholtz
Core inflation and hawkish Fed rhetoric are the dominant drivers of higher U.S. real yields. A bearish breakout by both real and nominal U.S. 10-year yields requires a rebound in Eurozone economic momentum.... Read More
Opportunities in Asia: Indonesia and the Philippines
Posted By Peter Forbes
With key interest rate decisions approaching, both Indonesia and the Philippines stand out as we search for opportunities in the Asia Pacific region. ... Read More
CoT Detail: 10-Year Treasury Large Specs At A Net Short Extreme Position Once Again
10-year specs are at an extreme net-short position once again. ... Read More
Extreme and Popular CoT Charts
Popular and extreme charts from the latest CoT report.... Read More
Weekly Digest – September 17 – September 21, 2018
Our top posts from the last week. ... Read More
Conference Call Replay – The Great Showdown Between Markets and Fed Over Inflation Part 2
A replay of our Septemeber 20, 2018 conference call. ... Read More
U.S. Dollar to Struggle, Inflows into U.S. Equities Set to Peak
Posted By Ben Breitholtz
We expect the U.S. dollar to churn sideways-to-lower with economic growth converging across the globe and inflation expectations well-anchored. Equities outside the U.S. and commodities away from energy are likely outperformers.... Read More
The Market’s Near-Perfect Track Record In Predicting The Outcome Of Fed Meetings
The market's track record for predicting the outcome of Fed meetings is nearly perfect in the months leading up to the decision. The Fed does not want any surprises, so it offers complete transparency to achieve this outcome.... Read More
VIX Shedding Negative Correlation to Inflation Expectations Yet Again
Posted By Ben Breitholtz
The correlation between equity volatility and inflation expectations should be closely watched as a positive shift telegraphed the burst in risk in February 2018.... Read More
Global Economic Growth Stuck on the Fence
Posted By Ben Breitholtz
Economic growth across the globe is on the fence with 50% of economies growing above average. U.S. and Latin American economic data remain positive stand-outs, but economic surprises are fading.... Read More