Gold is off to its best start to a year since at least 1975. In the first quarter, the 60/40 portfolio acted as a hedge amidst volatility for the first time in five years.... Read More
63% of domestic equity funds are now passive. Although active equity managers struggle to beat their benchmark most years, they still play an important role in price discovery and allocation of capital.... Read More
Month-over-month inflation came in lower than expected for the first time since July 2024. With other macroeconomic issues dominating headlines, this did not alter traders' opinions about future rate cuts much.... Read More
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 151k jobs, in line with estimates. While still likely too early to see the full potential effects from DOGE, federal jobs fell by their most since June 2022.... Read More
Ten-year yields have now declined seven weeks in a row, marking one of the longest streaks of the past couple decades.... Read More
While the majority of money market fund assets remain in government funds, the retail crowd has started reaching for yield once again in prime funds.... Read More
CPI came in much higher than expectations. Traders now see a roughly 50/50 chance the Fed remains on hold through the September meeting.... Read More
The annual benchmark revisions closed the gap in job growth seen between the household and establishment surveys. The labor market appears quite healthy and the Fed should remain on hold for the foreseeable future.... Read More
Foreign stocks, gold, and coffee all got off to fast starts in 2025.... Read More
Differentiating 'allocator' ETF flows from 'trader' ETF flows... Read More
A look at the size of various markets compared to the U.S. economy... Read More
CPI came in at expectations for the third month in a row, while core CPI came in slightly below estimates. None of this was enough to alter the longer-term thinking of fed funds traders, who continue to see the May FOMC meeting as the next decision point for the Federal Reserve.... Read More
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 256k jobs, beating even the highest Wall Street estimates. The case for rate cuts in 2025 took a hit today.... Read More
It has been more than a quarter century since the S&P 500 saw better returns over a two-year period.... Read More
Domestic equity funds saw record inflows in November. Money continues to leave mutual funds in favor of more tax-friendly ETFs.... Read More
Inflation data came in right at expectations for the second month in a row. Fed funds traders are now fully pricing in a December rate cut.... Read More
Hurricanes and strikes led to an extremely low response rate to the payrolls survey in October. After an additional month to collect data, the response rate is now 92%. While this led to a small positive revision to October employment data, the market was expecting a larger bump.... Read More
U.S.-based momentum stocks continue to power the stock market higher in 2024. Gold and cocoa are both posting great returns this year.... Read More
October's inflation data came in right at expectations. Fed funds traders increased their expectations for a December rate cut slightly.... Read More
Weather and strikes have muddied the payroll report's economic signaling. We will have to wait for revisions. The unemployment rate was not muddied, pointing to some strength in the labor market.... Read More