CPI came in much higher than expectations. Traders now see a roughly 50/50 chance the Fed remains on hold through the September meeting.... Read More
The annual benchmark revisions closed the gap in job growth seen between the household and establishment surveys. The labor market appears quite healthy and the Fed should remain on hold for the foreseeable future.... Read More
Foreign stocks, gold, and coffee all got off to fast starts in 2025.... Read More
Differentiating 'allocator' ETF flows from 'trader' ETF flows... Read More
A look at the size of various markets compared to the U.S. economy... Read More
CPI came in at expectations for the third month in a row, while core CPI came in slightly below estimates. None of this was enough to alter the longer-term thinking of fed funds traders, who continue to see the May FOMC meeting as the next decision point for the Federal Reserve.... Read More
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 256k jobs, beating even the highest Wall Street estimates. The case for rate cuts in 2025 took a hit today.... Read More
It has been more than a quarter century since the S&P 500 saw better returns over a two-year period.... Read More
Domestic equity funds saw record inflows in November. Money continues to leave mutual funds in favor of more tax-friendly ETFs.... Read More
Inflation data came in right at expectations for the second month in a row. Fed funds traders are now fully pricing in a December rate cut.... Read More
Hurricanes and strikes led to an extremely low response rate to the payrolls survey in October. After an additional month to collect data, the response rate is now 92%. While this led to a small positive revision to October employment data, the market was expecting a larger bump.... Read More
U.S.-based momentum stocks continue to power the stock market higher in 2024. Gold and cocoa are both posting great returns this year.... Read More
October's inflation data came in right at expectations. Fed funds traders increased their expectations for a December rate cut slightly.... Read More
Weather and strikes have muddied the payroll report's economic signaling. We will have to wait for revisions. The unemployment rate was not muddied, pointing to some strength in the labor market.... Read More
The 10-year lost 3.60% on a total return basis in October, marking one of its worst monthly returns since the pandemic. Gold continues its great year.... Read More
A look at the size of various markets compared to the U.S. economy... Read More
September's inflation data came in slightly above expectations. The idea of a 50 basis point cut has quickly been taken off the table by traders.... Read More
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 254k jobs, beating even the highest Wall Street estimates. Previous months' data was revised upwards. The unemployment rate was a rounding error away from being 4.0% despite estimates of 4.2%. Average hourly earnings came in above estimates. One month does not make a trend, but the case for aggressive rate cuts looks much less compelling after today's data.... Read More
Chinese stocks benefit from stimulus, while gold's great year continues.... Read More
August's inflation data came in right at expectations. Diving deeper into the data, year-over-year shelter prices rose for the first time since March 2023. The door has likely closed on traders' hopes of a larger rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting.... Read More