Inflation data came in right at expectations for the second month in a row. Fed funds traders are now fully pricing in a December rate cut.... Read More
Hurricanes and strikes led to an extremely low response rate to the payrolls survey in October. After an additional month to collect data, the response rate is now 92%. While this led to a small positive revision to October employment data, the market was expecting a larger bump.... Read More
U.S.-based momentum stocks continue to power the stock market higher in 2024. Gold and cocoa are both posting great returns this year.... Read More
October's inflation data came in right at expectations. Fed funds traders increased their expectations for a December rate cut slightly.... Read More
Weather and strikes have muddied the payroll report's economic signaling. We will have to wait for revisions. The unemployment rate was not muddied, pointing to some strength in the labor market.... Read More
The 10-year lost 3.60% on a total return basis in October, marking one of its worst monthly returns since the pandemic. Gold continues its great year.... Read More
A look at the size of various markets compared to the U.S. economy... Read More
September's inflation data came in slightly above expectations. The idea of a 50 basis point cut has quickly been taken off the table by traders.... Read More
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 254k jobs, beating even the highest Wall Street estimates. Previous months' data was revised upwards. The unemployment rate was a rounding error away from being 4.0% despite estimates of 4.2%. Average hourly earnings came in above estimates. One month does not make a trend, but the case for aggressive rate cuts looks much less compelling after today's data.... Read More
Chinese stocks benefit from stimulus, while gold's great year continues.... Read More
August's inflation data came in right at expectations. Diving deeper into the data, year-over-year shelter prices rose for the first time since March 2023. The door has likely closed on traders' hopes of a larger rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting.... Read More
The jobs report missed estimates slightly. Downward revisions to the past couple months were more substantial. However, wage growth ticked higher. Traders did not see the data as bad enough to definitively dictate a 50 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting.... Read More
The yen carry trade was a hugely profitable trade throughout the post-pandemic period. Over the past three months, however, it lost almost 52%.... Read More
Passive ETFs and mutual funds make up over half of all fund assets. Active managers have voiced their concern.... Read More
July's inflation data came in right at expectations. Supercore inflation, a measure closely watched by the Fed, fell for the third month in a row. Nothing from this morning's release did much to change traders' thinking about future Fed cuts, which makes sense considering the BLS will release one more CPI report before the next FOMC meeting.... Read More
The jobs report raises fears of a serious economic slowdown, if not a recession. These fears are overblown. That said, we expect the Fed to respond with rate cuts.... Read More
Small-cap stocks have enjoyed their day in the sun as expectations for a Fed rate-cutting campaign grow.... Read More
Small cap ETFs brought in over $12 billion in July on hopes of imminent rate cuts.... Read More
A look at the size of various markets compared to the U.S. economy... Read More
Headline CPI posted its first deflationary month in four years. Supercore inflation, a measure closely watched by the Fed, fell for the second month in a row. The markets have further cemented their expectation for a September rate cut.... Read More