CPI came in below expectations for just the fourth time since the beginning of 2021. Projecting where inflation will be in several months is an impossible task, but running through several scenarios offers some perspective.... Read More
Payrolls beat estimates for the ninth time in the past ten months. The markets took this upside beat in stride, keeping an eye on upcoming inflation releases.... Read More
The losses in the stock and bond markets have rarely been matched on a historical basis.... Read More
Differentiating 'allocator' ETF flows from 'trader' ETF flows... Read More
A look at the size of various markets compared to the U.S. economy... Read More
CPI came in above expectations yet again. In fact, headline inflation has only come in below expectations twice in the past twenty months. Projecting where inflation will be at year-end is an impossible task, but running through several scenarios offers some perspective.... Read More
With the labor market looking strong, the Fed has enough cover to continue hiking. Hopes of a pivot may be misguided.... Read More
The losses in the stock and bond markets have rarely been matched on a historical basis. The dollar's rise continues to hurt foreign exporters.... Read More
Foreigners sold their second largest total of U.S. equities on record in July.... Read More
CPI beat expectations once again in August. We continue to circle the October data, released in November, as the beginning of a period in which headline inflation numbers might provide some relief for Fed officials.... Read More
Today's payrolls release simply sets the table for the September 13 CPI report. With the labor market looking strong, the Fed continues to have enough cover to hike several more times. Questions still remain about the Fed's eventual terminal rate, but that will come into focus as the data unfolds.... Read More
The losses continued to pile up in the bond market in August.... Read More
Active equity funds continue to charge 10x the fees of passive equity funds.... Read More
Foreigners continued selling U.S. equities in June. On a 12-month basis, net equity sales reached a record level.... Read More
CPI came in lower than expectations for the first time in almost a year. Projecting where inflation will be at year-end is an impossible task, but running through several scenarios offers some perspective.... Read More
The labor market added 528k jobs in July, which means all the jobs lost during the pandemic have now been restored. Solid employment news continues to give the Fed the green light to hike, which is obviously bad for risk markets, but the inflation reports remain in the driver's seat in determining FOMC policy.... Read More
Bonds mutual funds and ETFs saw net outflows of $57 billion in June despite government bond funds seeing inflows.... Read More
A look at the size of various markets compared to the U.S. economy... Read More
'Foreign' net purchases of U.S, Treasuries were large in May. Rather than coming from the largest holders like Japan or China, this month's flows were attributed to Caribbean countries often associated with hedge funds.... Read More
CPI came in higher than expectations again. Projecting where inflation will be at year-end is an impossible task, but running through several scenarios offers some perspective.... Read More