CPI beat expectations once again in August. We continue to circle the October data, released in November, as the beginning of a period in which headline inflation numbers might provide some relief for Fed officials.... Read More
Today's payrolls release simply sets the table for the September 13 CPI report. With the labor market looking strong, the Fed continues to have enough cover to hike several more times. Questions still remain about the Fed's eventual terminal rate, but that will come into focus as the data unfolds.... Read More
The losses continued to pile up in the bond market in August.... Read More
Active equity funds continue to charge 10x the fees of passive equity funds.... Read More
Foreigners continued selling U.S. equities in June. On a 12-month basis, net equity sales reached a record level.... Read More
CPI came in lower than expectations for the first time in almost a year. Projecting where inflation will be at year-end is an impossible task, but running through several scenarios offers some perspective.... Read More
The labor market added 528k jobs in July, which means all the jobs lost during the pandemic have now been restored. Solid employment news continues to give the Fed the green light to hike, which is obviously bad for risk markets, but the inflation reports remain in the driver's seat in determining FOMC policy.... Read More
Bonds mutual funds and ETFs saw net outflows of $57 billion in June despite government bond funds seeing inflows.... Read More
A look at the size of various markets compared to the U.S. economy... Read More
'Foreign' net purchases of U.S, Treasuries were large in May. Rather than coming from the largest holders like Japan or China, this month's flows were attributed to Caribbean countries often associated with hedge funds.... Read More
CPI came in higher than expectations again. Projecting where inflation will be at year-end is an impossible task, but running through several scenarios offers some perspective.... Read More
The fed funds market's muted reaction to today's payrolls beat seems apt. Solid employment news continues to give the Fed the green light to hike, which is obviously bad for risk markets, but the inflation reports remain in the driver's seat in determining FOMC policy.... Read More
The losses in the stock and bond markets in the first six months of the year have rarely been matched on a historical basis. Commodities have been one of the only assets to offer positive returns this year.... Read More
CPI came in much hotter than expected in May. Most concerning is the rapid increase in OER and RPR.... Read More
Today's slight beat did little to change traders' minds about how aggressive the Fed will be in its fight against inflation. Good economic news continues to be bad news for risk markets.... Read More
2022 has been a year of extreme returns.... Read More
Bond mutual funds and ETFs saw one of their biggest monthly outflows on record in April. These outflows only accelerated out of bond mutual funds in May.... Read More
Japan's holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell a record $74 billion in March as the yen collapsed.... Read More
CPI came in higher than expectations again. Car prices did not fall as much as expected. Wage growth is not keeping pace with inflation.... Read More
With the Fed's focus on inflation, this morning's payrolls report did little to move the needle for FOMC policy. ... Read More