With two weeks to go, Republican fortunes keep improving. They are now solidly favored to retake the House majority and at least a toss-up to take 51 seats or more in the Senate.... Read More
In late September the political betting markets started to move in the Republicans' favor. Markets can react faster to news and this appears to be the case again as increased Republican fortunes are now being reflected in the latest round of polls. The Republicans are solidly favored to take the majority of the House and their odds of taking the majority of the Senate are improving.... Read More
Opinions among bettors and election models are diverging, with bettors thinking Republicans are in a better place than models suggest. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight dismissed bettors who "aren't that smart."... Read More
The latest data shows Democrats have a narrow polling lead over Republicans in the generic ballot. The Senate is favored to stay in Democrat control, while the House is expected to flip to Republican control. The prediction market patterns suggest bettors are open to the idea that Republicans are being undercounted in the polls.... Read More
The latest data shows Democrats have a polling lead over Republicans in the generic ballot. The Senate is favored to stay in Democrat control while the House is expected to flip to Republican control. The prediction market patterns suggest bettors are open to the idea that Republicans are being undercounted in the polls.... Read More
The latest data shows Democrats have a polling lead over Republicans in the generic ballot. The Senate is now favored to stay in Democrat control while the House is expected to flip to Republican control. The prediction market patterns suggest bettors are open to the idea that Republicans are being undercounted in the polls.... Read More
The latest data shows Democrats have a polling lead over Republicans in the generic ballot. The Senate is now favored to stay in Democrat control as Republicans struggle in two important races. The House is expected to flip to Republican control.... Read More
The latest data shows Democrats have a polling lead over Republicans. The Senate is now favored to stay in Democrat control as Republicans struggle in two important Senate races.... Read More
The latest data shows Democrats have closed the polling gap with Republicans. The Senate is now favored to stay in Democrat control.... Read More
Republicans are still favored to sweep the midterm election, but the race is getting closer.... Read More
Both the political polls and betting markets currently point to a Republican sweep in the upcoming U.S. election.... Read More
Voting patterns in Congress are the most extreme in over a century.... Read More
Wall Street is focused on two things, assessing how much fiscal stimulus the economy will get in 2022 and whether the December 3 debt ceiling will be messy. The Virginia gubernatorial election today could be a key factor in assessing these outlooks.... Read More
Despite Democrats' unified control of government, the pace of regulation in the U.S. has contracted significantly in 2021.... Read More
Checking in on Biden's approval rating... Read More
Political polarization between Republicans and Democrats in Congress continues to grow.... Read More
A breakdown of politicians in Congress by age and generation... Read More
What's wrong with politics? It might not be red versus blue, but rather elderly versus non-elderly.... Read More
One final update on the Georgia elections as voters go to the polls today... Read More
In the last few days, the betting market has priced in a larger chance for Democrat victories in the Georgia Senate runoff. Incumbent Kelly Loeffler (R) is now expected to lose her race. Incumbent Dave A. Perdue (R) is now in a toss-up race. The probably Republicans retain control of the Senate is also a toss-up at 54%.... Read More