Betting markets still give Republicans a 71% chance of retaining the majority of the Senate. They are seemingly at odds with the polls that suggest this is a much closer race. Polls were off going into election day by consistently overstating the Democrats' strength.... Read More
Collectively the Georgia Senate runoffs are tightening according to a recent poll. The next few days will see some important milestones.... Read More
The upcoming Georgia Senate races could have a big impact on the makeup of the government over the next couple years. As of this writing, Republicans are expected to maintain control of the Senate.... Read More
With election day finally upon us, we check in on the polls and betting markets one last time.... Read More
With one day to go, the divergence between betting markets and polls remains very wide. The difference may be due to differing opinions on a "hidden Trump vote." Pollsters do not think it exists, but betting markets do.... Read More
While polls are tightening and Biden still has a comfortable lead, the betting markets continue to see this as a closer race.... Read More
With eight days left to go until the election, polls and betting markets are still showing varying degrees of certainty in their predictions. While both groups expect a Biden victory, the betting markets appear to be more closely aligned with the market.... Read More
While polls are tightening, Biden still has a comfortable lead. The betting markets see this as a much closer race.... Read More
A look at the polls and betting markets... Read More
Our podcast series, Talking Data, offers timely insights into macro data and its impact on the economy and markets. In today's installment, Jim offers his insight on the election and the divergence between polls' and investors' opinions.... Read More
Risk markets could come under renewed pressure as investors and betting markets price in a stronger chance of a Biden victory.... Read More
For weeks we have noted prediction markets and investors are aligned with each other but are not aligned with the polling averages. This is unusual. Tonight's debate should start the process of resolving this divergence.... Read More
Trump held true on his promise to cut regulations when he took office in 2016. In the past few years, however, the number of pages in the Federal Register have slowly crept higher.... Read More
Bettors still see Biden and the Democrats having a slight edge in the upcoming election.... Read More
The betting market suggests this is a very close election.... Read More
FiveThirtyEight unveiled its election forecasting model, currently giving Biden a 71% chance of winning. Betting markets put Biden's odds at 59%. Why is there such a difference?... Read More
Make no mistake about it, Trump is behind. But his deficit is narrowing. When focusing on the swing states, the race is a lot closer.... Read More
While Trump's election odds are behind in both the polls and betting markets, his deficit might not be as large as perceived. The swing states are still very much in play.... Read More
While Trump's election odds are behind in both the polls and betting markets, his deficit might not be as large as perceived.... Read More
Lately, Trump's re-election odds have been trending lower. Wall Street is now anticipating a Biden victory. The data indeed shows that Trump is behind, but ten swing states will bear watching as November approaches.... Read More